{"id":30158,"date":"2023-07-07T22:03:25","date_gmt":"2023-07-07T20:03:25","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.noucicle.org\/lhora\/?p=30158"},"modified":"2023-07-08T15:25:38","modified_gmt":"2023-07-08T13:25:38","slug":"raimon-obiols-lapunt-del-dia-171-les-pulsacions-electorals","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.noucicle.org\/lhora\/raimon-obiols-lapunt-del-dia-171-les-pulsacions-electorals\/","title":{"rendered":"Raimon Obiols: L\u2019apunt del dia\/171 (Les pulsacions electorals)"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><strong>Les pulsacions electorals&nbsp;<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u00ab<em>La dreta comen\u00e7a la campanya amb avantatge, per\u00f2 sense assolir la majoria<\/em>\u00bb, llegeixo en un titular del diari <strong><em>El Pa\u00eds<\/em><\/strong>, que<a href=\"https:\/\/elpais.com\/espana\/elecciones-generales\/2023-07-07\/la-derecha-comienza-la-campana-con-ventaja-pero-sin-alcanzar-la-mayoria.html\"> ha comen\u00e7at a publicar di\u00e0riament una estimaci\u00f3 de vot<\/a>. \u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Aquest seguiment diari, que es coneix com a <em>tracking<\/em>, parteix d&#8217;una mostra inicial de <strong>1.000<\/strong> entrevistes, a partir de les quals se n&#8217;afegiran <strong>500<\/strong> di\u00e0ries fins arribar a <strong>2.000<\/strong>. Despr\u00e9s&nbsp; aniran&nbsp; retirant cada dia les <strong>500<\/strong> entrevistes m\u00e9s antigues i n\u2019afegiran <strong>500<\/strong> de noves. El m\u00e8tode pret\u00e9n seguir aix\u00ed les tend\u00e8ncies de vot i les variacions temporals al llarg de la campanya.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u00c9s com passar de l\u2019\u00fas espaiat de l\u2019estetoscopi per tal d\u2019auscultar la respiraci\u00f3 i els batecs del cos electoral, a&nbsp; mantenir un dispositiu de monitoratge constant de la freq\u00fc\u00e8ncia card\u00edaca de l\u2019electorat, i publicar els resultats cada <strong>24<\/strong> hores.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>De manera que podrem seguir di\u00e0riament aquest control de pulsacions electorals.&nbsp; Les dades&nbsp; d\u2019ahir semblaven indicar tres coses:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ol class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>La dist\u00e0ncia entre el <strong>PP<\/strong> i el <strong>PSOE<\/strong> s&#8217;ha escur\u00e7at, i ja seria inferior a dos punts.<\/li><li>Els efectes dels acords de govern entre <strong>PP<\/strong> i <strong>Vox<\/strong> a les comunitats aut\u00f2nomes, m\u00e9s que al <strong>PP<\/strong> haurien afavorit&nbsp; a <strong>Vox<\/strong>: \u00ab<em>Els pactes auton\u00f2mics post28M sembla estar passant factura al PP<\/em>\u00bb, <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/obartomeus\/status\/1677277903774466051?s=61&amp;t=CM3ncfnzvNJywPBB6JC4-Q\">diu <strong>Oriol Bartomeus<\/strong><\/a> a Twitter. <\/li><li>Hi ha una activaci\u00f3 del vot de l\u2019esquerra, tant del socialista com del de <strong>Sumar<\/strong>.&nbsp;<\/li><\/ol>\n\n\n\n<p>La bossa d\u2019indecisos \u00e9s encara considerable. Hi ha camp per c\u00f3rrer, perqu\u00e8 \u00e9s potencialment m\u00e9s favorable a l&#8217;esquerra (uns <strong>650.000<\/strong>) que&nbsp; a la dreta (uns <strong>200.000<\/strong>), que t\u00e9 el vot m\u00e9s decidit.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>La principal conclusi\u00f3&nbsp;per\u00f2, que ja apareixia en les enquestes de les dues \u00faltimes setmanes, \u00e9s que els resultats  del <strong>23J<\/strong> estan oberts: hi ha partit. <br><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Els resultats dependran de&nbsp; la campanya electoral que ha comen\u00e7at, que ser\u00e0 determinant, decisiva.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Un altre fet que les enquestes, els debats i les informacions i comentaris dels mitjans&nbsp; estan posant de manifest \u00e9s que les palpitacions del cos electoral s\u00f3n agitades. L\u2019opini\u00f3 p\u00fablica no es mostra assossegada, ben al contrari: els \u00e0nims est\u00e0n inquiets, les emocions confrontades i en evoluci\u00f3. (Probablement la causa principal d\u2019aquest fet \u00e9s que hi ha sectors importants de l\u2019opini\u00f3 que se senten vulnerables. L\u2019opci\u00f3 que doni m\u00e9s seguretat en ser\u00e0 beneficiada).&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>&nbsp;<strong>P. S.-<\/strong> A Catalunya, els espais&nbsp; processista i post processista es troben en un moment convuls. Hi ha molta divisi\u00f3 i es fa dif\u00edcil de cartografiar les distintes posicions i difer\u00e8ncies. Encara \u00e9s  m\u00e9s dif\u00edcil de preveure com votaran  (i fins a quin punt votaran o s\u2019abstindran). &nbsp;<br><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"590\" src=\"http:\/\/www.noucicle.org\/lhora\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/IMG_3762-1-1024x590.jpeg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-30162\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.noucicle.org\/lhora\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/IMG_3762-1-1024x590.jpeg 1024w, https:\/\/www.noucicle.org\/lhora\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/IMG_3762-1-300x173.jpeg 300w, https:\/\/www.noucicle.org\/lhora\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/IMG_3762-1-768x443.jpeg 768w, https:\/\/www.noucicle.org\/lhora\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/IMG_3762-1.jpeg 1305w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption>Evoluci\u00f3 de l\u2019estimaci\u00f3 de vot de les enquestes de<strong> 40dB<\/strong> per a <strong>El Pa\u00eds<\/strong> i la Cadena <strong>SER<\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"779\" src=\"http:\/\/www.noucicle.org\/lhora\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/IMG_3763.jpeg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-30165\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.noucicle.org\/lhora\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/IMG_3763.jpeg 1024w, https:\/\/www.noucicle.org\/lhora\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/IMG_3763-300x228.jpeg 300w, https:\/\/www.noucicle.org\/lhora\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/IMG_3763-768x584.jpeg 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption>Des del mes de maig haurien augmentat en <strong>200.00<\/strong>0 els votants del <strong>PP<\/strong> que ara s&#8217;inclinarien per <strong>Vox<\/strong>.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><br><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Les pulsacions electorals&nbsp; \u00abLa dreta comen\u00e7a la campanya amb avantatge, per\u00f2 sense assolir la majoria\u00bb, llegeixo en un titular del diari El Pa\u00eds, que ha comen\u00e7at a publicar di\u00e0riament una estimaci\u00f3 de vot. \u00a0 Aquest seguiment diari, que es coneix com a tracking, parteix d&#8217;una mostra inicial de 1.000 entrevistes, a partir de les quals &hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":30161,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[15,285,1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-30158","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-espanya","category-lapunt-del-dia","category-general"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.noucicle.org\/lhora\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30158","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.noucicle.org\/lhora\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.noucicle.org\/lhora\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.noucicle.org\/lhora\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.noucicle.org\/lhora\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=30158"}],"version-history":[{"count":9,"href":"https:\/\/www.noucicle.org\/lhora\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30158\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":30171,"href":"https:\/\/www.noucicle.org\/lhora\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30158\/revisions\/30171"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.noucicle.org\/lhora\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/30161"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.noucicle.org\/lhora\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=30158"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.noucicle.org\/lhora\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=30158"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.noucicle.org\/lhora\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=30158"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}