{"id":28247,"date":"2023-05-04T07:47:13","date_gmt":"2023-05-04T05:47:13","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.noucicle.org\/lhora\/?p=28247"},"modified":"2023-05-04T07:47:41","modified_gmt":"2023-05-04T05:47:41","slug":"raimon-obiols-lapunt-del-dia-106-lelefant-a-lhabitacio","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.noucicle.org\/lhora\/raimon-obiols-lapunt-del-dia-106-lelefant-a-lhabitacio\/","title":{"rendered":"Raimon Obiols: L\u2019apunt del dia\/106 (L\u2019elefant a l\u2019habitaci\u00f3)"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>\u00ab<em>Un fantasma recorre Europa: l&#8217;espectre del retorn del trumpisme<\/em>\u00bb, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.economist.com\/europe\/2023\/03\/30\/europe-is-unprepared-for-what-might-come-next-in-\">escrivien fa unes setmanes a <strong><em>The Economist<\/em><\/strong><\/a>. Als EUA, les eleccions presidencials seran el novembre de <strong>2024<\/strong> i no es pot descartar (toquem fusta) que hi torni a haver un republic\u00e0 a la Casa Blanca (el mateix <strong>Donald Trump<\/strong>, o <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/ca.m.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Ron_DeSantis\">Ron DeSantis<\/a><\/strong>, el governador de Florida).&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>En l\u00ednies generals, es pot preveure que un nou president republic\u00e0 tindria una pol\u00edtica dura i restrictiva en temes d\u2019immigraci\u00f3; seria m\u00e9s nacionalista (\u00ab<em>America First<\/em>\u00bb) en temes econ\u00f2mics i comercials;&nbsp; seria m\u00e9s irresponsable&nbsp; en mat\u00e8ria ambiental (evitant l\u2019esfor\u00e7 de la transici\u00f3 energ\u00e8tica, augmentant la producci\u00f3 de combustibles f\u00f2ssils); i seria summament bel\u00b7ligerant en q\u00fcestions culturals. En tots aquests \u00e0mbits, el seu marge de maniobra estaria condicionat per les posicions del seu electorat, en un pa\u00eds durament polaritzat. <br><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>En canvi, un president republic\u00e0 tindria m\u00e9s marges, m\u00e9s llibertat, en les  pol\u00edtiques exteriors. Aix\u00f2 fa molt m\u00e9s dificils les previsions, especialment en relaci\u00f3 a la guerra d\u2019Ucra\u00efna. En aquesta q\u00fcesti\u00f3, molt greu per a Europa, tant <strong>Trump<\/strong> com <strong>DeSantis<\/strong>, en un o altre moment, han q\u00fcestionat els compromisos assumits per l\u2019administraci\u00f3 <strong>Biden<\/strong>.&nbsp; Les posicions p\u00fabliques de <strong>DeSantis<\/strong> en&nbsp; pol\u00edtica exterior, s\u00f3n imprecises. Malgrat els seu passat militar i el seu pas pel Congr\u00e9s, \u00e9s reticent a expressar-se sobre q\u00fcestions internacionals. En algun moment es va referir a les disputes entre R\u00fassia i Ucra\u00efna&nbsp; com si es tract\u00e9s d\u2019una q\u00fcesti\u00f3 en la qual els Estats Units no havien d&#8217;intervenir. Aix\u00f2 va provocar reaccions, i despr\u00e9s va rectificar (ha arribat a&nbsp; titllar a&nbsp; <strong>Putin<\/strong> de \u00ab<em>criminal de guerra<\/em>\u00bb).&nbsp; Tanmateix, no \u00e9s gens clar qu\u00e8 faria en relaci\u00f3 a la guerra d\u2019Ucra\u00efna,&nbsp; si fos a la Casa Blanca.  I el que faria <strong>Trump<\/strong> \u00e9s encara m\u00e9s imprevisible, m\u00e9s fosc.  <br><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u00c9s possible que ni <strong>Trump<\/strong> ni <strong>DeSantis<\/strong>  tinguin massa clar qu\u00e8 fer.  Per\u00f2 aix\u00f2 \u00e9s una  cosa que tal vegada  tamb\u00e9 els hi passa  a tots els governants (<strong>Putin<\/strong> incl\u00f2s) que estan implicats, de manera directa o indirecta,  en un&nbsp; conflicte b\u00e8l\u00b7lic que no pot tenir guanyador. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Un canvi en la pol\u00edtica nord-americana que signifiqu\u00e9s&nbsp; reduir la seva implicaci\u00f3 a Ucra\u00efna, posaria a la UE en una situaci\u00f3 molt complicada. D\u2019una banda, el pes de l\u2019ajut financer i militar dels EUA no \u00e9s assumible per Europa, en l\u2019actual estat de coses. De l\u2019altra, ni una vict\u00f2ria russa ni  una ucra\u00efniana s\u00f3n imaginables. El m\u00ednim que es pot dir \u00e9s que la Uni\u00f3 europea t\u00e9 al davant un repte considerable.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>P. S.-<\/strong> Aquest quadre parla sol: <\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"861\" src=\"http:\/\/www.noucicle.org\/lhora\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/IMG_3315-1024x861.jpeg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-28262\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.noucicle.org\/lhora\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/IMG_3315-1024x861.jpeg 1024w, https:\/\/www.noucicle.org\/lhora\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/IMG_3315-300x252.jpeg 300w, https:\/\/www.noucicle.org\/lhora\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/IMG_3315-768x646.jpeg 768w, https:\/\/www.noucicle.org\/lhora\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/IMG_3315-1536x1291.jpeg 1536w, https:\/\/www.noucicle.org\/lhora\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/IMG_3315.jpeg 1668w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><br>&nbsp;<br><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u00abUn fantasma recorre Europa: l&#8217;espectre del retorn del trumpisme\u00bb, escrivien fa unes setmanes a The Economist. Als EUA, les eleccions presidencials seran el novembre de 2024 i no es pot descartar (toquem fusta) que hi torni a haver un republic\u00e0 a la Casa Blanca (el mateix Donald Trump, o Ron DeSantis, el governador de Florida).&nbsp; &hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":28254,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[78,285,49,1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-28247","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-cartes-a-nc","category-lapunt-del-dia","category-mon","category-general"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.noucicle.org\/lhora\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/28247","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.noucicle.org\/lhora\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.noucicle.org\/lhora\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.noucicle.org\/lhora\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.noucicle.org\/lhora\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=28247"}],"version-history":[{"count":16,"href":"https:\/\/www.noucicle.org\/lhora\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/28247\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":28265,"href":"https:\/\/www.noucicle.org\/lhora\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/28247\/revisions\/28265"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.noucicle.org\/lhora\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/28254"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.noucicle.org\/lhora\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=28247"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.noucicle.org\/lhora\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=28247"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.noucicle.org\/lhora\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=28247"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}